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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 59

New York Giants 21 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to GB 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at GB 16 for 7 yards (24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.19 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model