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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 10 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.94 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model