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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to NYG 21, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP