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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Giants 7 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to GB 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-K.Nixon MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 28. 25-K.Nixon to GB 28 for no gain (30-D.Holmes). FUMBLES (30-D.Holmes), touched at GB 29, RECOVERED by NYG-48-B.Whitley at GB 32. 48-B.Whitley to GB 31 for 1 yard.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP