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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 6

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 7-G.Everett.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.32 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 6, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model