Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(14:03) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen (6-P.Locke). DEN-6-P.Locke was injured during the play. DEN-29-J.McMillian was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.87 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.33 EP

KICK -1.56 EP

38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
62% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model