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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(14:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short right to 13-K.Allen to LAC 49 for 6 yards (2-P.Surtain).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.32 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model