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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 55

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.49 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP