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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 28 for 12 yards (31-N.Niemann, 0-D.Henley).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 27, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model