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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 40

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 25-J.Kelley left tackle to DEN 40 for no gain (47-J.Jewell; 49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.37 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model