4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model