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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 5 at the 5
Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(:08) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The Three Options
GO
+2.63 EP
-
37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.08 EP
KICK
+2.91 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT
-0.01 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
