Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 73

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

(1:41) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 30 for 13 yards (53-B.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.69 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model