Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on DEN-20-M.Burton, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DEN 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.12 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model