Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 59

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(8:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to LAC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.65 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model