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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 83

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 16-J.Scott punts 83 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.19 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model