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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – San Francisco 49ers 42

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Smith (20-A.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.12 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model