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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model