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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 36

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to PHI 34 for 2 yards (7-H.Reddick, 41-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model