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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – San Francisco 49ers 28

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to SF 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Bell MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at SF 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model