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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to SF 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.68 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model