Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(14:24) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to SF 12, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Bell to SF 15 for 3 yards (48-P.Johnson, 57-B.VanSumeren).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.20 EP
59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model