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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 88

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 70 yards to LAC 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +1.09 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 88, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model