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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to NE 6, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-24-A.Finley.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.59 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP