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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 38

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(11:16) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe scrambles right end ran ob at LAC 34 for 4 yards (9-K.Murray).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.80 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model