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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to NE 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 27-M.Bryant to NE 13 for -5 yards (53-B.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.60 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model