Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 96

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

(1:49) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to LAC 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-D.Davis to NE 27 for 34 yards (14-T.Montgomery).

The Three Options

GO -3.75 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.86 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 96, worth -5.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model