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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 89

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to LAC 45, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at NE 47 for 8 yards (14-T.Montgomery).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model