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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(:01) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model