4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left (20-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.35 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.70 EP