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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 17-A.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.11 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model