Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Green Bay Packers 21

(10:53) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to GB 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-K.Nixon to GB 23 for 1 yard (27-C.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.44 EP
59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model