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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 33-E.Garror to TEN 30 for 12 yards (50-S.Olubi).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.88 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP