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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model