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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 25 – Indianapolis Colts 25

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 6-N.Folk punts 40 yards to IND 30, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.44 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model