Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 16

(:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 20-N.Cross, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-41-G.Stuard at TEN 18. 41-G.Stuard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model