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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 33-E.Garror to TEN 30 for 15 yards (38-T.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP