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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP