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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 83-K.Granson right end to TEN 39 for 2 yards (2-A.Al-Shaair).

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model