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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 28

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(:09) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model