Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 89

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(:56) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to IND 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-I.McKenzie ran ob at TEN 49 for 15 yards (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-86-K.Rader, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 49.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.54 EP
58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 89, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model