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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 63 yards to IND 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 12 for 7 yards (40-A.Kendall).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model