Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 70

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 10

(14:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 33-E.Garror to TEN 23 for 9 yards (43-T.Denbow).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model