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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 6

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:17) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 6, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model