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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 39-L.Hedley punts 41 yards to DET 35, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-K.Raymond to DET 46 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice; 48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model