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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 40

New Orleans Saints 28 – Detroit Lions 33

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.16 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model