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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 7 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 39-L.Hedley punts 42 yards to DET 40, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on DET-57-A.Pittman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.88 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 82, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 40, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP