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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 66

Detroit Lions 21 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 3-J.Fox punts 59 yards to NO 7, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 5-L.Bowden to NO 10 for 3 yards (42-J.Reeves-Maybin, 46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.42 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP