Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 64

Detroit Lions 21 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(:56) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to NO 26, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 5-L.Bowden to NO 26 for no gain (42-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on NO-27-I.Yiadom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model