Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 48

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.58 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP

KICK -0.62 EP

40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
60% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model